Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
