A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
