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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still